A fellow GM who's advice (if not politics) I respect and I are at a philosophical impasse and we've agreed to put the question to our fellow GM's here.
Okay, here's the rub:
My players and I are running a campaign in the Aeredon Corridor, a remote sector lightly held by the Federation in the 2270's timeframe (between The Motion Picture and The Wrath of Kahn).
Although the sector is nominally governed by the Federation, and lies outside the Organian Treaty Zone, the Klingons were allowed to invoke that treaty to retain possession of a planetary system within the sector. Several independent worlds also lie within the sector, some with starfaring capabilities and some protected by the Prime Directive. At least one world is governed by the Orion clans and several small Orion outposts are believed to be scattered in and near the nebula clouds which border (and isolate) the sector.
So far, so good.
Unfortunately, a powerful Klingon house has decided to press its advantage and extend its power base. Using Klingon internal politics to deadlock the Klingon High Command, the House of Tahg has launched a pre-emptive invasion of the sector and has destroyed several Federation starships and a number of Starfleet shore installations. Contrary to their usual behavior, the Klingons have taken care to avoid unecessary civilian casualties. Only targets that presented an immediate threat to the invasion forces have been attacked.
A number of freighters have been converted into troop/colony transports, and are landing colonists on worlds within the sector. While the Empire and the Federation negotiate and bicker, the House of Tahg is consolidating power and seizing territory (including planets scheduled to be colonized, but not yet occupied, by the Federation).
Tahg's intention is to grab as much as they can in the chaos and confusion, give back only what they have to, and invoke the Organian Treaty to prevent hostilities from going too far. Because the invasion does not represent a sanctioned effort by the Klingon government, it is not technically covered by the Organian Treaty (at least according to one or more Trek novels). So far, the Organians have failed to respond either to the provocation or to the Federation's inquiries.
My friend and I disagree on the ultimate outcome. It is my contention that there are enough pragmatists (and craven state department types) to decide that the provocation (and seizure of territory) is too minor to upset the status quo, and would allow the Klingons to invoke the treaty and keep the colonies rather than go to war. Especially since the Klingon-Romulan treaty might bring the Romulans into the conflict.
It is my friend's contention that the Federation would never cave to such actions (as a matter of principle), and that short of Organian intervention, the Federation will bring to bear whatever force is necessary and drive the Klingons out of the sector.
There is precedent in either case. In the War of 1812, the fledgling United States allowed Britain to use military force to seize the Fort Astoria, Washington area and drive out the American trappers and settlers there.
On the other hand, American military forces were adamant about liberating all American territories and property seized by the Japanese in World War Two (whether there was an immediate strategic need to do so or not).
It might also boil down to the ability (or lack thereof) to do anything about it. My take is that although the Federation in the 23rd century is a young and powerful giant, but is unwilling to flex her might too quickly or decisively.
What do you think? Any input on the matter is greatly appreciated.