Political:Powell Spoke.

[Evan van Eyk]

Originally posted by Calcoran
So even if the sanctions were fully lifted, I think he's got such a firm control of his population and such an efficient propaganda that he'd be able to make them believe for a while that there still are sanctions, that the Irakis must still suffer

No that won't happen. You cannot shut off a country from the rest of the world. Words will spread. Information is the highest good on the world - it gives you power if used widely, more than anything else. And this information will spread through trade relations, UN support personal, etc... Saddam will have no chance - trust me, I lived in a dictatorship and everybody knew that were lies what the government told us and eventually the state failed - peacefully.
Maybe at the beginning he could use his propaganda, but it won't last long until resistance comes up from exile people and his whole card-house falls into pieces.

[Calcoran]

I wonder if Chinese or North Korean would agree with you Evan ...

[First of Two]

Iraq is a country where they execute men who refuse to enlist in the army. Shoot them right in the head,

And you expect someone to rise up against him internally?

I have the deed to a bridge in Brooklyn you may be interested in.

[Evan van Eyk]

I did not say it would be a fast process. But both China and North Korea have approached the West in recent times.
China and Europe have quite good relations and North Korea has neared the South - there were family exchanges and the like and they had a united team at Olympics. Yes that are small successes, but I think its worth the try.

[Cybrludite]

Originally posted by Capt.Hunter
OK, personal opinions on the Powell speech. The photographic evidence was not clear. As Evan pointed out, a truck at that distance is just a rectangular thingy. There's no way you could claim with any accuracy whether it's a decon truck or Sammy's Pizza making a delivery.

Actually, it's always been our government's policy to make such pictures fuzzier so the rest of the world is left guessing just how good our cameras really are. Back in the late '80s, a Navy officer officer ended up in deep kimchee for releasing to a news magazine "un-fuzzed" pics of the Russian aircraft carrier Kusnetsov (sp?) under construction. The pic was taken by a KH-11 spysat from 405 miles up, and at a fairly oblique angle. I saw a copy of this pic in a book about spysats. You could count the indivdual bricks of the buildings in the forground. This was about 17 years ago, and the technology has improved since then. I'm pretty sure that in the original version of the photo from the briefing, it was quite clear whether it was a piece of decon equipment or a pizza delivery truck.

[First of Two]

It is very likely that the images were "fuzzed" because the event was being televised.

It is also somewhat likely that considerably less "fuzzed" materials were given to the delegates privately.

Keep in mind that Powell's public speech was not the only presentation he made that day.

As to what can be defined and agreed-upon as a chemical truck vs. a pizza truck... the various intelligence agencies have more expertise than we do at that (excepting maybe the intel guys here). Enough so that any attempted deception by US would be uncovered vary quickly.

If you haven't heard anything to the contrary from anybody else's intel services, especially those of countries that do NOT back the war, by the time the inspectors report again (2/14), they're almost certainly authentic.

[Evan van Eyk]

I do not think the US faked anything I just think that any delegate at that conference saw what they wanted to see. The US wanted to see a decon vessel. The German delegates saw nothing and the Iraq delegate would have liked to see a truck of gold with his name on it.

However if the US print photographs of Soviet carriers in books why not show a picture of quality of a decon truck? I think if they could have done that, they would. You said yourself that the carrier-pic was seventeen years old. Technology has improved since that and Iraq is quite near the equator which makes it easier to take pictures there. So I would assume the US are capable of making photographs that would make a dentist analysis of the driver possible. 'Fuzzy' to hide the true capabilites of the satellites and you just can see what cigarette he smokes. But it was just a grey and shady picture with a truck. I think it wss the best the US had to offer - yet it keeps room for many interpretations.

[qerlin]

"...and the Iraq delegate would have liked to see a truck of gold with his name on it..."

[First of Two]

If it were anything BUT a decon truck, why would it be neccessary to get it out of there in a hurry, when you're supposed to be being open with the inspectors?

Frenzied activity around a military base just one day before an inspection has but one rational explanation. Deception.

Unless you believe the Iraqi military was trying to win the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval. In which case I'd need to see a copy of their entry form.

[First of Two]

Let's hear it for civilized Europe!

Statement of the Vilnius Group Countries
For the record: 5 February 2003, Wednesday.

Statement by the Foreign Ministers of Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in response to the presentation by the United States Secretary of State to the United Nations Security Council concerning Iraq:

Earlier today, the United States presented compelling evidence to the United Nations Security Council detailing Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs, its active efforts to deceive UN inspectors, and its links to international terrorism.

Our countries understand the dangers posed by tyranny and the special responsibility of democracies to defend our shared values. The trans-Atlantic community, of which we are a part, must stand together to face the threat posed by the nexus of terrorism and dictators with weapons of mass destruction.

We have actively supported the international efforts to achieve a peaceful disarmament of Iraq. However, it has now become clear that Iraq is in material breach of U.N. Security Council Resolutions, including U.N. Resolution 1441, passed unanimously on November 8, 2002. As our governments said on the occasion of the NATO Summit in Prague: "We support the goal of the international community for full disarmament of Iraq as stipulated in the UN Security Council Resolution 1441. In the event of non-compliance with the terms of this resolution, we are prepared to contribute to an international coalition to enforce its provisions and the disarmament of Iraq."

The clear and present danger posed by the Saddam Hussein's regime requires a united response from the community of democracies. We call upon the U.N. Security Council to take the necessary and appropriate action in response to Iraq's continuing threat to international peace and security.

By the way, maybe the French guys can riddle me this...

If military intervention is a bad, bad thing...

What are French troops doing in the Ivory Coast?

[Dave Biggins]

If we have been cursed, we have been cursed by the Chinese for we do indeed live in interesting times. I've spent most of my time lurking and I have seen posts that were a banquet of food for thought on both sides of the Atlantic (special kudos to Dan Stack and C5...I've got some 12 year old scotch and glasses with y'all's names on them). I've also seen some half baked posts that merited a pimp slap from a Klingon...especially some rather trite ones from one of my fellow Americans.

Like some of the posters here, I work in the DC metro area where we mix Rebel ingenuity with Northern charm. Foreign policy is a part of my job and this is a truly tangled knot. Some of my fellow Americans seem to be distraught with the fact that there are nations in Europe showing the audacity to disagree with us. Well, let me clue you in on something: they are our allies. They are not our pawns and they are not yes-men. Thank God for that. Yes-men dispense some pretty crappy advice.

Keep something in mind: Mr. Hussein is on neither the Christmas card lists of Mssrs. Chirac or Schroeder. If Mr. Hussein were to slip in the bathtub, get hit by a dirgible, or have a satellite fall on him, I don't think too many sad words would be going back and forth over the region of Alcaice-Lorainne [sp?]. They are elected leaders who are looking after the interests of the people who gave them the power they weild (and who can just as easily take it away). They are doing what democratically elected leaders do.

I tend to be fairly conservative in matters of foreign policy. Here's my advice. Do not attack Iraq without the blessings of the SC. It can be done. I am not talking about arm twisting either (especially with Europe...Mr. Blair is in a tight enough position). One of the many things I learned is that blackmail makes lifeling enemies while bribery makes short term business partners. Now please take this as a metaphore because I think sliding a paper bag full of Euros across a desk in Paris or Berlin will go over like a fart in church

What I am saying is that both nations have some serious concerns that need to be addressed. I am not talking about a grandiose ceremony transmitted word for word all over the free world press. I am talking about some Washington-, Paris-, and Berlin-insiders having some closed door sessions and try to hash things out. Call it a meeting of the minds, a cabal of bureaucrats, or (my personal favorite) "the smoke filled room". Better yet, call it nothing at all and just hold the meeting in secret. The bottom line would be for the US to get the nod from France and Germany while France and Germany get to have a say and save face.

Can the US take out Hussein without the SC blessings? Yes, but its not worth it. Hussein is not the Black King and Iraq is not the endgame. He is a rather annoying rook. Although it may seem that we don't need France or Germany now, we definitely will in the long term.

[qerlin]

Here's an excellent article with some possible insight into the American character that so puzzles people.

In general, I found it pretty on the money; the analysis is solid.

http://denbeste.nu/external/Mead01.html

[Eric R.]

On the Decon truck, my guess having some expierence with Emergency hazmat procedures (and these are fairly common to both Military and Emergency use) is that maybe it was not the truck itself which made it a decon turck but that stuff around it which Powell did not go it to detail on.

Perhaps water tanks were loctaed nearby for Decon i.e large hoses running into the trucks trailor for showers; Safe zones, water pools, and hot zones may have been identified. A Decon operation no matter if it is in use or on standby takes up a lot of space trust me I have been in plenty of real and training exercises to know. The Iraqi's are not dumb they know the dangers that even working with the stuff can incure and would be ready to prevent/aid in case of an emergency.

[First of Two]

Hey, that's brilliant.

No wonder I feel so conflicted sometimes.. I'm half Jeffersonian, half Jacksonian.

[Cybrludite]

Originally posted by First of Two
By the way, maybe the French guys can riddle me this...

If military intervention is a bad, bad thing...

What are French troops doing in the Ivory Coast?

My question on the whole Ivory Coast thing is when will the French troops there surrender? (No, that's not a serious debate remark, but in fact was a cheap shot. That's all I can afford until my next paycheck...)